Every four years, as the presidential election season rolls around, countless polls predicting who will win the United States presidency flood media outlets. A significant part of this decision-making process for voters can be explained by math.
An Interesting Model
A new model developed by a group of applied mathematicians, including Zachary Kilpatrick from CU Boulder, attempts to explain how voters choose their candidate in the time leading up to the election.
The model tackles an important topic: the role of bias when voting.
The simulation feeds information to different “agents” (imaginary people made by the model). Some agents begin the experiment with more bias than others and are fed information over time. Eventually, the agents are tasked with picking a candidate.
Despite receiving new information that may contradict their initial beliefs, agents with an initial bias often did not change how they would vote. Importantly, the larger the bias an agent started with, the quicker they decided who they would vote for. However, individuals who did not have a large initial bias often took time to make a decision, sometimes flipping between candidates.
My Take
I believe this study, and math in general, can teach an important lesson to politicians: focus on the middle. While this may appear obvious, many candidates don’t always do this.
The model outlines how difficult it can be to sway someone’s vote who may hold a significant bias for one candidate. In other words, it may prove very hard for a candidate to lose their strong, foundational base of supporters.
So, to win an election, a candidate must spend ample time winning the votes of those with less bias or definitive voting stances.
Math: the key to winning an election.